What lessons can we learn from the GCSE marking debacle? Perhaps one thing: so far no-one can really explain what happened. In particular, why relatively small statistical changes can have such a devastating impact on large numbers of people. And it is vital that, in all the abstract debate on statistics, we remember that there are real people who have been dealt a severe blow.
This confusion is in itself disturbing. It suggests that we are not truly in control of our examination system, that the tail wags the dog. The regulator did not have the data, skills, resources or systems to react to changes at the speed required to stay on top of things. The very complexity of the system makes it difficult to predict consequences.
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