However, although population trends may be contributing to the over-supply, it is highly unlikely that parental demand is being met across the UK.
The National Childcare Strategy's over-reliance on the private sector to provide new places has led to providers concentrating on the same areas of the country, where they perceive that they can sustain a business without permanent subsidy. The recruitment crisis, in which everybody has been fighting over too few workers, has led to hikes in staff wages, which translate into higher fees that many parents cannot pay.
As control of childcare expansion moves to local authority chief executives and away from the partnerships, it will be more vital than ever that planning of new provision takes all these factors into account. Some areas of the UK will never be a magnet for private nurseries, and it is unclear how the new children's centres in the most deprived neighbourhoods will be funded.