For every week in January - when the Omicron wave was at its peak throughout the country - notifications to Ofsted of outbreaks of Covid among nurseries, pre-schools and childminders are now revealed to have been several thousand a week higher than initially stated by Ofsted.
This has come to light after Ofsted recently updated figures on the number of reported Covid-19 notifications in early years and childcare settings during the period that early years settings were required to report outbreaks.
Data was published fortnightly between June 2020 and February 2022 on the number of notifications from registered early years and childcare providers reporting one or more confirmed cases of Covid-19 by week.
Analysis by the National Day Nurseries Association has found that comparing the figures released at the time with the updated figures, there are around 16,000 notifications that were missing from the earlier data between the beginning of November 2021 and mid-February 2022.
For most of these weeks, there were more than 1,000 notifications a week more than those first declared during this 13-week period, and in some weeks the updated figures are double those given at the time.
Prior to this updated release, the highest on record of reported Covid-19 notifications published by Ofsted was for 5,189 settings that reported one or more cases of Covid in the week beginning 24 January 2022.
The updated figures for January far surpass this (see below).
It is unclear why the republished figures on notifications of confirmed cases of Covid in early years settings (updated on 12 April) have increased so much.
Even allowing for a slight lag in collecting the data, it is not clear why there is such a large discrepancy.
For example:
- Figures published for the week of 3 January 2022, showed that there were 2,933 notifications of Covid in early years settings, while the updated figures have risen by 1,138 to 4,071.
- For the week of 10 January, the figures initially published were 4,457 but these now appear to have more than doubled and have been revised up to 8,970, an increase of 4,513.
- For the week of 17 January, the figures more than doubled from 4,752 published at the time to 10,663 – an increase of 5,911 notifications.
- For the week of 24 January, the published figures were 5,189 and these have now been updated to 8,588, an increase of 3,399.
- For the week of 31 January, figures rose from 4,559 to 5,813, an increase of 1,254.
On a few occasions the number of notifications has been revised down.
For example, for the week of 20 December 2021, cases have been rounded down from 3,697 to 2,964.
The following week of 27 December numbers have more than halved from 2,677 to 1,277 - a fall of 1,400 cases.
Notes accompanying the updated figures state:
'Data updated to include the remaining notifications received up until 21 February 2022. All data has been republished to account for a change in methodology for aggregating the data. The date of notification now refers to the date when a confirmed case was reported to Ofsted, rather than the date Ofsted processed the notification.'
In addition, in the notes to the updated statistics on 12 April it says, ‘Previously, the data also included broader information relating to Covid-19. The updated reporting now only reports on notifications of confirmed cases of Covid-19.’
However, Ofsted said at the time it first published them that the statistics were reporting on notifications of confirmed cases of Covid-19. There is no explanation as to what Ofsted means by ‘broader information relating to Covid-19’.
The local authority data up to 30 September 2021 has also been updated in line with this methodology change, Ofsted said.
Since 21 February, childcare providers are no longer required to notify Ofsted, or the childminder agency with which they are registered, of any Covid-19 cases in the setting, whether that is of a child or staff member.
Purnima Tanuku, chief executive of the National Day Nurseries Association said, ‘The new Covid figures published by Ofsted are deeply worrying. These show that thousands of notifications went missing at a crucial period when early years settings were under immense pressure and remaining open to children.
‘In this period, the Government were making critical decisions about the level of support to early years providers. The whole sector has had a difficult time throughout the pandemic. Settings and staff have gone above and beyond to care for and educate our youngest children.
‘In the Spring Statement, the Government maintained their decision to remove business rates relief from nurseries, despite the huge impact that these notification rates show.
‘Prior to the pandemic the sector was already facing a workforce crisis which has been exacerbated by these huge numbers of Covid cases. Combined with a devastating cost of living crisis, the sector is in dire need of help. The Government needs to address the central issue of chronic underfunding if it is to support the sector which is crucial to levelling up opportunity for all children.’
Both Ofsted and the Department for Education have been asked for clarification and comment.