A study by the UCL Institute of Education, University of Bristol and University of Warwick concludes that outcomes for these pupils are “significantly worse”.
The research focused on primary school children in areas with selective education who perform well in key stage 2 assessments but who just miss out on getting into grammar school.
It finds that compared to peers with similar achievement in non-selective areas, these children:
- Are three percentage points less likely to attend university.
- Are eight percentage points less likely to attend a “high-quality university”.
- Are three percentage points less likely to get a “good” degree (2:1 or above).
- Have a greater chance of dropping out if they do attend university.
The report states: “This is in some ways a central part of the case against grammar schools – the presence of selection implies significant harm to high-performing pupils who just fail to clear the hurdle of the selection exam.”
The study has also looked at outcomes for children depending on family income, focusing especially on children from families who are “just about managing” – the group defined by the government as families whose incomes lie above the poorest but just below middle-income families.
It finds that children from the richest families living in selective areas have an 80 per cent chance of going to grammar school. However, only a third of pupils from families in the “just about managing” bracket are likely to get a place.
Indeed, the chances of attending a grammar school were found to be “highly dependent” on a child’s socio-economic background with a “marked difference” in the numbers progressing to grammar schools across the range of backgrounds.
This was the case even when children performed well at key stage 2. For example, comparing a child from a family in the lowest income quintile and one from a family in the top income quintile, the most deprived pupils have a 25 per cent chance of attending a grammar compared to 70 per cent for the least deprived.
Dr Lindsey Macmillan from the IoE, co-author of the study, said: “By comparing higher education outcomes between those attending similar schools in selective compared to non-selective areas, we show that the outcomes for those who just miss out on attending a grammar are significantly worse than the outcomes for similar pupils attending similar schools in non-selective areas. This is a prime example of the harm a selective system can do to attainment and later life chances.”
Professor Simon Burgess, co-author of the research from the University of Bristol, added: “A grammar school system – selection by ability – is often proposed as a way to boost social mobility. More recently, this seems to be the view of the UK prime minister.
“However, our research shows there is no support for this in the data. We have shown that only among the very affluent do more than half of the pupils get into a grammar school; the grammar system has nothing to offer most families.
“Taken together, our results suggest that access to grammar schools is strongly related to family background, even conditional on key stage 2 attainment, and the cost of not accessing a grammar school in a selective area is high in terms of later outcomes. This combination in access and harm in outcomes serves to exacerbate inequalities across generations, severely limiting equality of opportunity and life chances of those from more deprived families.”
The research comes as a Survation poll this week found notable support among older people for the Conservative’s General Election manifesto pledge to lift the ban on new grammar schools.
The poll was commissioned by the Mail on Sunday to investigate support across the spectrum of Conservative policies and involved more than 1,000 adults aged 18 and over.
On the grammar school question, it found that more than half of the over 55-year-olds in the study supported the plan, whereas only a third of 18 to 24-year-olds and a third of 35 to 54-year-olds did so.
Overall, 40 per cent of those polled backed the plan, 33 per cent opposed the plan and 28 per cent were not sure.
The Conservative proposals are to allow existing grammar schools to expand and new selective schools to open. A consultation over the plans closed in December. The results were not published before Parliament was dissolved ahead of the June 8 General Election.
However, the last Conservative government signalled its intention to go ahead with the policy in March’s Budget when £320 million was put aside for 140 new schools..
The research study, Assessing the role of grammar schools in promoting social mobility, can be accessed at http://bit.ly/2qbG1Q5