The UK private nursery sector is now worth a staggering 2bn, an increase of 72 per cent since 2000. But the 2004 Market Assessment report by market analysts Key Note has warned that the falling birth rate and competition from Government childcare initiatives could force some smaller providers to close.
The report values the whole childcare sector at 3.79bn, up by a third in four years (see box). Key Note forecast continued buoyancy with growth of 24 per cent by 2009, when the total market is expected to be worth 5.03bn.
The steady fall in the UK child population, down by 3.4 per cent since 2001, is temporarily being offset by a 'mini baby boom' and demand for childcare from mothers returning to work.
In Scotland there was a 3.9 per cent increase in the number of daycare and pre-school education centres. School-age provision climbed dramatically, with out-of-school clubs growing by 34 per cent, while there was an 18.1 per cent decrease in playgroups.
However, in England the longer-term decline in the birth rate, the tendency of primary schools to offer nursery places and Government initiatives designed to make the working lives of parents easier 'have ironically made life more difficult for many childcare providers'.
Referring to warnings issued earlier this year by the National Audit Office, the report stated, 'The private nursery sector may be in for a difficult few years, partly because of falling numbers of children, but mainly due to changing working patterns and competition from other providers.'
But despite the warnings of over-provision in some areas, the report also acknowledged that there were wide regional discrepancies and identified shortages of childcare for parents who need flexible provision.
Key Note said that childminders are 'particularly well placed' to offer the flexible childcare now sought by parents.