A report from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) says that this would be the largest fall over any period since the late 1970s.
However, due to “substantial growth” in the 2000s, spending in 2019/20 would still be 50 per cent higher than in 2000/01.
The analysis is included in the report Long-Run Trends in School Spending in England. It finds that the growth in school funding during the 2000s came to an end in 2011/12, “with average school spending per-pupil largely frozen in real terms between 2011/12 and 2015/16”.
It continues: “Over the current Parliament, the government has committed to freezing school spending per-pupil in cash terms.
"Given current inflation expectations, this is expected to result in a real-terms cut in school spending per-pupil of at least seven per cent – or about eight per cent if we account for changes in the costs likely to be faced by schools.”
The report also tackles the inconsistencies and inequalities in school funding that have been well documented over the past few years.
There are huge disparities across England with an analysis last year showing that schools in the 10 best-funded areas get an average of £6,300 per-pupil while those in the 10 worst-funded areas get £4,200.
Much of this inequality is based on historical levels of local authority funding as opposed to pupil need or school location.
The government is planning to introduce a new national school funding formula from 2017/18 to replace the existing system, but the IFS report says it cannot predict the results of this as not enough detail has been forthcoming from ministers in their initial consultation.
The IFS report does present a new twist on the funding inequalities. It shows that, on average, students taking their GCSEs in 2015 had £57,000 spent on them over the course of their schooling career between Reception and year 11.
However, there is considerable variation within this. Of pupils taking their GCSEs in 2013, 10 per cent had less than £49,000 spent on them and 10 per cent had more than £67,000.
Luke Sibieta, co-author of the report, said: “The introduction of a national funding formula for schools in England looks set to be one of the most radical shake-ups of school funding in at least the past 30 years.
“Replacing 152 different formulae with one single, simple formula will inevitably lead to substantial changes in funding across schools and, for good or bad, will almost completely remove local authorities from the school funding system.”
Malcolm Trobe, interim general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “We have serious concerns about the overall level of funding for all pupils. (The fall in school funding) is having a significant impact on schools with many having to reduce the number of courses they are able to offer, increase class sizes and cut resources such as IT equipment and books.
“The government’s plan to introduce a new funding formula to address wide geographical variations in school funding is certainly needed but redistributing money is not in itself enough. Greater investment is urgently needed.”
- To download the full IFS report, visit www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8237
- For details of the government’s initial fairer funding formula consultation, which closed on April 17, visit http://bit.ly/1TEdAqK