The spin on the childcare commission is that it will look at measures to deregulate childcare provision and expand childminding, in line with the arguments recently made by Liz Truss, a Conservative MP. Ministers have also said that they want to expand more wrap-around care for schoolchildren.
Unfortunately, these goals can point in different directions. Liz Truss blames the Labour Government's expansion of nursery places and early years regulatory standards for a decline in childminding places and an increase in childcare fees. But if you look at the statistics, in the period 2005-2010, when nursery and day care places underwent their most significant expansion, childminder numbers dropped much more sharply for over-fives than for 0 - threes, largely because the Labour Government expanded beforeand after-school clubs in this period as well, as part of its extended schools strategy.
The new commission will undoubtedly find scope for relaxing bits of unnecessary red tape. But marginal changes to staff-to-child ratios for childminders are not likely to make a huge difference. It is worth remembering that the rules on adult-to-child ratios are already more flexible than might appear to be the case.
The biggest change on the horizon for childminders may indeed be to increase regulation, not diminish it, since a key conclusion from the Nutbrown Review is that early learning staff should all be qualified to Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or above. The review places the quality of early years learning and childcare at the heart of the agenda, and rightly so. The countries that most successfully combine social mobility and high female employment rates are those with high-quality universal childcare systems. If the commission wants to secure affordability with high quality, it should take the Nordic path, not the free market one.